Modèle de distribution des revenus du Projet d’analyse des échanges mondiaux (GTAP)

Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN)
Title: GTAP Income Distribution Model
Solicitation Number: 20-169668
1. Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN)
An ACAN is a public notice indicating to the supplier community that a department or agency intends to award a contract for goods, services or construction to a pre-identified supplier, thereby allowing other suppliers to signal their interest in bidding, by submitting a statement of capabilities. If no supplier submits a statement of capabilities that meets the requirements set out in the ACAN, on or before the closing date stated in the ACAN, the contracting officer may then proceed with the award to the pre-identified supplier.
2. Definition of the requirement The Department of Global Affairs Canada has a requirement to further develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GEMPACK using the GTAP framework and database to facilitate the analysis of the effects of trade and other policies on income distribution in Canada. The work will involve the following:

The new model must be consistent with existing CGE models used by the Department, notably the disaggregation of the standard GTAP sectoral aggregation for motor vehicles and parts to nine subsectors. The disaggregation must be performed using industry best-practices as described in the academic literature on the subject. The nine additional disaggregated sectors required are:
Automobile manufacturing
Motor vehicle gasoline engine and engine parts manufacturing
Motor vehicle steering, suspension component (except spring) manufacturing
Motor vehicle brakes and brake systems
Motor vehicle transmission and power train parts
Motor vehicle interior trim, seats and seat parts
Motor vehicle metal stamping
Other motor vehicle parts manufacturing
Manufacturing of trucks, utility vehicles, trailers, motor homes and campers.

The new model must also contain additional characteristics consistent with existing CGE models used by the Department, including:
An option to treat physical capital as specific to each industry in each region, rather than the standard GTAP specification.
A sticky wage adjustment mechanism giving a realistic labour market specification, rather than the standard GTAP specification.
A reformulation of the standard GTAP treatment of foreign assets and liabilities to account for net foreign asset accumulation in each region.

In addition to the above, the model will allow for the analysis of the effects of trade and other policies on income distribution in Canada. The model will generate results on the effect of trade and other policies on the price of household goods, rental accommodation, wage rates and employment by occupation, and capital income from dividends, interest and self-employment. These results will be further fed into a micro-simulation model to generate implications for the standard of living for a variety of representative Canadian households with varying characteristics. This will be implemented in two parts:
The addition of occupational detail to GTAP.
The creation of a household microsimulation database.

The addition of occupational detail to GTAP is a crucial component of the income distribution model because it allows for varying income levels other than the standard GTAP specification of skilled and unskilled labour which is inadequate for income distribution analysis. In order to add additional occupational detail, it will be necessary to obtain employment by occupation by industry data and link this data to the GTAP sector classification. Changes in employment by occupation will be further disaggregated by gender, education and wage level. The standard model structure will need to be modified to take advantage of the new level of detail provided by this data.
The creation of a household microsimulation database will expand the standard GTAP model to allow for income distribution analysis at the household level. Standard GTAP has one representative household that undertakes all consumption expenditures, supplies all of Canada’s labour, owns all housing stock, holds all of Canada’s foreign assets and shares ownership of industrial capital with foreign owners. Each of these items must be disaggregated into several representative households using micro household data while maintaining the aggregate Canadian household structure in the current database. As a result, the model will output changes to the economy and how these changes affect the various new households, including the impact on household income and expenditures, which would then feed back into the demand equations in the CGE model to allow for both components to be solved simultaneously.
The final deliverables for this project will be:
A shift share analysis of the changes in employment data used in the project, disaggregated by occupation, gender, education and wage level.
A version of GTAP that incorporates the additional occupational level for Canada and the household microsimulation database, as detailed above.
An illustrative simulation to be guided by the Department.
All of the GEMPACK computer code necessary to adjust the standard GTAP model into a model that incorporates the requirements above.
A detailed report covering all deliverables and methodology.

3. Criteria for assessment of the Statement of Capabilities (Minimum Essential Requirements) Any interested supplier must demonstrate by way of a statement of capabilities that it meets the following requirements:

PhD in economics from a recognized academic institution with a specialization in CGE modelling demonstrated through a track record of publications in international recognized academic journals in the area of CGE modelling.
20 years of experience building, developing and using international trade models using the GEMPACK programming language and the GTAP database.
20 years of experience publishing in international recognized academic journals in the area of CGE economic modelling.
Experience developing custom international trade models for multiple government agencies using the GEMPACK programming language and the GTAP database for applied trade policy analysis.
Experience developing CGE models of trade with a labour market that includes a mobility component between occupations.
Experience providing training and support for international trade models using the GEMPACK programming language and the GTAP database for applied trade policy analysis.

4. Applicability of the trade agreement(s) to the procurement
This procurement is not subject to any of the trade agreements.
5. Justification for the Pre-Identified Supplier
The development of custom CGE models using the GEMPACK programming language and the GTAP database requires a significant amount of knowledge, experience, expertise and demonstrated ability to complete such projects. The pre-identified supplier is the only supplier that has these qualifications and has the ability to successfully complete the requirements of the contract.
6. Government Contracts Regulations Exception(s)
The following exception(s) to the Government Contracts Regulations is (are) invoked for this procurement under subsection subsection 6(d) - "only one person is capable of performing the work").
7. Ownership of Intellectual Property
Ownership of any Foreground Intellectual Property arising out of the proposed contract will vest in the Contractor.
8. Period of the proposed contract or delivery date
The proposed contract is for a period of 3 months from March 17th 2020 to June 16th 2020.
9. Cost estimate of the proposed contract
The estimated value of the contract, including option(s), is $ 80,000.00 (GST/HST excluded).
10. Name and address of the pre-identified supplier
Victoria University
300 Flinders Street
8001 Melbourne, Australia
11. Suppliers' right to submit a statement of capabilities
Suppliers who consider themselves fully qualified and available to provide the goods, services or construction services described in the ACAN may submit a statement of capabilities in writing to the contact person identified in this notice on or before the closing date of this notice. The statement of capabilities must clearly demonstrate how the supplier meets the advertised requirements.
12. Closing date for a submission of a statement of capabilities
The closing date and time for accepting statements of capabilities is March 16th 2020 at 2pm EST.
13. Inquiries and submission of statements of capabilities
Inquiries and statements of capabilities are to be directed to:
Claude Richard (Mr.)
Senior Contracting Officer
200 Promenade du Portage, Gatineau, QC K1A 0G2
Telephone: 343-203-0347
Email: r••••••••@••••••••.••.ca